![]() It is possible that these areas or additional areas in Somalia could also face Famine (IPC Phase 5) in the absence of food assistance household survey data to make this determination will be available at the end of the post-gu IPC workshop in late August. In March 2022, five additional areas were determined to have a Risk of Famine, including Hawd Pastoral (central and Hiiraan regions) and Addun Pastoral livelihood zones and sites hosting displaced populations in Mogadishu, Gaalkacyo in Mudug Region, and Dhusamareb in Galgaduud Region.If food assistance plans do not materialize, then FEWS NET and FSNAU assess Famine (IPC Phase 5) would likely occur in these areas. As a result, averting Famine (IPC Phase 5) will hinge on the delivery of large-scale and sustained humanitarian food assistance.3 Currently, it is expected that Emergency! (IPC Phase 4!) outcomes – associated with excess hungerrelated mortality – with some households in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) are most likely to continue in parts of rural Bay and Bakool and emerge in sites hosting internally displaced people (IDP) in Baidoa. These climate conditions mirror that of 20, raising extreme concern for a sixth consecutive season of poor harvests due to weather shocks and a precipitous increase in drought-related livestock deaths. Furthermore, confidence in the forecast of an unprecedented, fifth below-average rainfall season during the October to December 2022 deyr season has strengthened due to the emergence of the negative Indian Ocean Dipole alongside persistent La Niña conditions.Emergency! (IPC Phase 4!) outcomes are likely ongoing, meaning Famine (IPC Phase 5) would likely occur in the absence of humanitarian food assistance. These conditions are occurring even though food assistance reached over 25 percent of the population in Bay Region and over 50 percent of the population in Bakool Region, on average, between April and June, based on reports from the Food Security Cluster. More specifically, the above evidence indicates over 20 percent of the population in Bay Bakool Low Potential Agropastoral livelihood zone and parts of Sorghum High Potential Agropastoral livelihood zone have large food consumption gaps or can only mitigate their hunger by liquidating their assets, traveling to displacement sites in search of food aid, or begging for food.Current food security outcomes, June 2022 A sustained scale-up of food and nutrition assistance is needed urgently to mitigate the loss of life in Somalia. FEWS NET and FSNAU first identified a Risk of Famine in Somalia in February. This evidence comes amid a decline in cases of acute watery diarrhea/cholera, suggesting hunger is increasingly a driver of atypically high levels of acute malnutrition in the upper end of the Critical (15-29.9 percent) range and excess adult and child mortality. The provisional results of a household survey conducted by FSNAU, FEWS NET, and partners in Bay Region in late June indicate acute food insecurity has rapidly worsened since April despite ongoing food assistance deliveries, as evidenced by increased hunger and use of emergency coping strategies. Somalia, where up to 7.1 million people are acutely food insecure amid extreme drought, would likely face its second Famine (IPC Phase 5)1 in just over a decade in the absence of humanitarian food assistance.Famine (IPC Phase 5) would likely occur if food assistance plans do not materialize ![]()
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